Economic and Market Forecasting

  • Land Use Forecasting and Policy

  • Housing Allocation Models

  • Employment Opportunity Lands Studies

  • Hedonic Modeling

JOHNSON ECONOMICS developed a predictive redevelopment model that translated marginal shifts in key development variables into a geographically specific predicted development/redevelopment pattern.  The model was designed to qualitatively evaluate the impact of streetcar improvements on development patterns, allowing for a comparison of alternative alignments.  The model is based on a series of simultaneous pro forma assessments of highest and best use at the parcel level.  Outputs include aggregated development activity by type, physical form and resulting impact on the value of improvements.  The model is also set up to allow for easy testing of sensitivities to key assumptions.   

Metro:

Streetcar Impact Model

JOHNSON ECONOMICS developed a python-based predictive modeling structure for the Portland metropolitan area. The model is designed to predict the magnitude and form of likely development or redevelopment activity over an assumed time frame. The model solves for a development solution that represents the highest and best use at the parcel level under the assumptions used, as well as outputting an associated residual property value. The DSP model currently incorporates a total of 44 prototypical programs which cover a range of land use types and development forms. Key variables such as entitlements, achievable pricing, construction costs, return parameters, and other key assumptions are used to predict a highest and best use development form, as well as secondary options. The output of the model includes predicted rates of development and redevelopment at the parcel level, as well as the prevailing form of this development and associated yield. The structure of the model allows for rapid testing of changes in policies and other interventions, and the expected response from the development market.

Metro:

Developer Supply Processor

JOHNSON ECONOMICS  was retained by METRO's Transit Oriented Development & Centers Program to research the pricing effects of urban living infrastructure.  The objectives of the work were to:

Document if and by how much urban living infrastructure improves the financial feasibility of mixed-use residential development.

Determine if public investment in urban living infrastructure is a cost-effective strategy to catalyze centers development.

The hedonic modeling evaluated a range of urban amenities hypothesized to represent critical components of an "urban experience", which can add value to an area that can be realized in higher achievable pricing for residential development. Hedonic statistical modeling of 2006 home transactions proximate to various urban amenities revealed a range of price premium estimates for recent home sales, all else equal. Our study identified a substantive impact on achievable pricing associated with a range of tenant types.

Metro:

Hedonic Modeling of Urban Amenities

JOHNSON ECONOMICS worked with the City of Eugene, Oregon to develop a predictive model of development and redevelopment activity based on current and anticipated market conditions.  The model evaluated commercial, industrial and residential development patterns, translating key market inputs and regulatory controls into associated conclusions with respect to highest and best use and predicted development/redevelopment forms.  The work provided an assessment to inform the City by offering insights on how key districts might absorb future residential and commercial growth through development and redevelopment.  The analysis provided a theoretical construct within which assumptions with respect to the nature and magnitude of future development and redevelopment activity can be generated. 

 

The results of this approach can be localized to specific districts and can be policy sensitive.  The output included district carrying capacities and likely development patterns, with alternative scenarios developed based on a range of prospective policy interventions. 

City of Eugene: Development Scenario Modeling

JOHNSON ECONOMICS worked on a major evaluation of industrial and employment land need within the City of Portland.  Johnson economics projected demand for specific product types on eighteen sites located throughout the metropolitan area.  The assignment includes short- and long-term demand forecasts for industrial and office space, as well as forecasts over time by product type and configuration needs.  As a second phase of the assignment, JOHNSON ECONOMICS worked with a design and engineering firm to run return on investment financials for development solutions on the eighteen sites. 

Portland Development Commission:

Employment Opportunity Lands Study

JOHNSON ECONOMICS developed a residential demand model for the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area that converts projections of households by age, income and household size into demand by ability price point, preferred product type and tenure. The model further disaggregates demand into psychographic characteristics based on Claritas’ PRIZM clusters typologies.  The model was linked to a series of prototypical residential development forms and associated financial characteristics to assess the likely market response to demand.  This approach allows for a differentiation between preferred and realized demand, with the model solving for a realistic solution that may be suboptimal. 

Metro:

Housing Allocation Model

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